Abstract
Background
Acute malnutrition remains a major public health challenge among children under five in Malawi due to undetected and untreated cases. While several policies and programmes are in place, they face significant resource input and implementation constraints. In this study, we evaluate the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of three interventions designed to address constraints along the care pathway in childhood acute malnutrition management. These include improving early recognition of symptoms by caregivers, increasing attendance at routine growth monitoring visits through community outreach, and scaling up the availability of therapeutic food supplements.
Methods and Findings
We use a newly developed model representing the natural history and management of acute malnutrition, implemented within the Thanzi La Onse (TLO) dynamic individual-based simulation framework, which captures the public health system in Malawi. Each of the three interventions is assessed both individually and in combination, translated into seven scenarios which we evaluate in comparison to the status quo. The optimal strategy combines two interventions, improved caregiver awareness of early symptoms with increased availability of therapeutic food supplements. Over five years, this strategy is predicted to avert 840,470 (95% CI: 682,057–998,883) DALYs with total incremental costs of $34 million. This corresponds to an annual health expenditure increase of $0.32 per capita. At a cost-effectiveness threshold of $76 per DALY averted, the strategy results in an incremental net health benefit of 394,252 (95% CI: 235,839–552,665) DALYs averted.
Conclusions
The cost-effective strategy for addressing constraints in childhood acute malnutrition management is simultaneously improving caregiver recognition of early symptoms and expanding therapeutic food supplement availability. Out of the seven scenarios evaluated, this integrated approach was found to be the optimal strategy within the Malawian public health system, yielding substantial health at modest costs. These findings provide critical evidence to inform national policy and guide investment prioritisation for the management of childhood acute malnutrition.
Published: March 2026 [PREPRINT]