Background
As of 2019, between 498,000 and 862,000 new cases of all forms of leishmaniasis were estimated to occur each year resulting in up to 18,700 deaths and up to 1.6 million DALYs lost. Given low treatment coverage, poor compliance and the emergence of drug resistance, challenges in sustaining vector control strategies and the ability of parasites to persist in animal reservoirs independent of human infection, an effective vaccine could significantly reduce the health and economic burden of these diseases. However, commitment to the development of a new vaccine requires a market signal from governments and global funders who in turn require better estimates of the potential public health value of the vaccine.
This study uses the development of a leishmaniasis vaccine as a case study to illustrate a generalizable approach to estimating the commercial and public health value of a technology relying primarily on publicly available GBD data. More specifically, by projecting the potential public health impact of the rollout of a leishmaniasis vaccine and translating this into monetary values based on the concept of health opportunity cost, we estimate the demand curve for such a vaccine for an 11-year period between 2030 and 2040. At an estimated global demand of over 560 million courses with the average value-based maximum price, weighted by quantity demanded, of $5.7–6 [$0.3 – $34.5], our results demonstrate that both the quantity of vaccines estimated to be required by the countries considered as well as their ability-to-pay make the vaccine commercially attractive to potential manufacturers.
Published: June 2022